(Motorsports news) Last weekend, Red Bull was finally vanquished, and Carlos Sainz triumphed for Ferrari in a nose-to-tail three-team finish – but does this imply the incumbent champions’ domination is over? Most likely not. Verstappen remains the overwhelming favorite to win in Japan – his odds of winning are 29/100, which are virtually unchanged from last weekend, and the Singapore setback was likely more of a hiccup than a precipitous decline in form.
Verstappen said after the race that the vehicle had been difficult to set up on the simulator even before the team arrived at the track, and that the same car, on a ‘virtual’ Japan circuit, had “felt amazing.” The team’s difficulties were caused by a new floor that did not perform as well as intended, as well as track resurfacing and circuit adjustments that were incompatible with the car. Japan’s circuit may return to normalcy, but favorable odds can still be found.
Verstappen has only been on pole once in the last five races (in the Netherlands), but he is still the 1/2 favorite this weekend. Last year, Red Bull dominated every aspect of qualifying, and the Dutch driver finished on pole.
PODIUM CHALLENGES:
Heavy rain can often cause mayhem at Japan, but even though it did last year, Verstappen got through the mist to win by nearly 30 seconds over teammate Sergio Perez. However, the sun is expected to shine this year. That puts Verstappen a strong favorite, given Red Bull is on form, as Perez has only finished ahead of him twice this season, both times winning. His odds of winning are 11/1, so if Verstappen’s car fails, he may pick up the pieces.
Lewis Hamilton, a five-time winner at Japan, is one of the drivers on the field who is a master of the track. He was in contention in Singapore and is a very good value at 17/1 for victory or 9/5 for top three, with a 10/1 chance of either Mercedes finishing first. Japan, like Silverstone and Spa, contains some fast corners that can cause tyre wear.
Ferrari battled with this early in the season, but they appear to have conquered it, and both drivers are 18/1 to win or a good value 14/5 to finish on the podium. McLaren is excellent in high-speed corners – they were second and fourth at Silverstone – and Lando Norris is coming off a second-place finish. He is 14/1 to win, but the odds for the top three are 143/100.
POINT-PLAYERS:
The top order is difficult to anticipate right now because three separate teams competed for the win in Singapore, none of which were Red Bull! That implies that slight mistakes or gains might be the difference between a podium finish and mid-range points. As a result, finding value in top six finisher odds is difficult. Pierre Gasly, on the other hand, is at 12/1 and has won two of the last three races.
Alpine has struggled in fast bends, but he finished sixth in the Spa sprint. In the top ten, Liam Lawson scored his first points in Singapore and is 9/4 to do it again. He has already competed in Super Formula at Suzuka this year, rising from tenth to fourth. A top-six finish could be appealing at 39/1.
Also read: Piastri has extended his contract with McLaren F1 through the end of 2026
