The 2023 World Cup semi-final race is very much alive. With twelve league games remaining, it appears that only South Africa and India will guarantee a spot in the semi-finals. Australia is comfortably positioned in third place, but since New Zealand’s November 1 loss to South Africa in Pune, the competition for fourth place has heated up.

It appeared as though the race for the top four spots in the World Cup was over a week ago, with Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, and India appearing to be far ahead of the others. But New Zealand’s decline in performance has given the bottom-placed teams newfound vigor. The Black Caps have suffered defeats in their last three games, including a crushing 190-run loss to South Africa on Wednesday.

After suffering their second-largest defeat in World Cup history, New Zealand dropped from third to fourth place, severely hurting their net run rate. With 7 games played, they have 8 points, which is just 2 points more than Pakistan (5th position) and Afghanistan (6th place).

POTENTIAL TIE-BREAKER SCENARIOS

With 12 points: Australia, New Zealand and Afghanistan
With 10 points: Australia, New Zealand, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka
With 8 points: Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Afghanistan/England, Sri Lanka

World Cup Qualification Scenarios: Explained

How India can qualify

To guarantee a place in the semifinals, India must win one of their final three matches. India has six games and twelve points.

India’s remaining fixtures
South Africa in Kolkata on November 5;
Netherlands in Bengaluru on November 12

How South Africa can qualify

To advance to the semi-finals, South Africa must win one of their final two matches. After seven games, they have twelve points. Given that they have scored more than 350 runs four times in this World Cup and have the greatest net run rate in the competition, 12 might also be sufficient for them. With just 12 points, South Africa and India will both qualify if Afghanistan loses one of their final three games.

SA’s remaining fixtures

India in Kolkata on November 5;

Afghanistan in Ahmedabad on November 10. 

How Australia can qualify

For Australia to have a chance at the semi-final, they must win one of their final three games. If the five-time winners can win two of the remaining three or all of them, they will be guaranteed a position. Right now, a 10-point logjam is inevitable, so Australia might want to avoid having to rely solely on the net run rate.

Australia’s remaining fixtures

England in Ahmedabad on November 4;
Afghanistan in Mumbai on November 7;
Bangladesh in Pune on November 1.

How New Zealand can qualify

Even though they lost against South Africa by 190 runs, New Zealand still controls its own fate. If New Zealand wins its final two games, they will virtually be guaranteed a spot in the tournament with 8 points from 7 games; a strong net run rate should provide them enough.

New Zealand might be able to qualify with just 10 points, but they should be cautious when it comes to net run rate scenarios.

The only team in the bottom half that can score 12 points and pose issues for New Zealand is Afghanistan.

But if they lose their next game, which is against Pakistan on November 4 in Bengaluru, then things could get a little messy for New Zealand. The BlackCaps’ injury issues have gotten worse; after taking hits against South Africa, James Neesham and Matt Henry were added to the list. Only nine players appear to be totally fit for New Zealand right now, with players like Lockie Ferguson, Matt Henry, and Kane Williamson still recovering from injuries.

NZ’s remaining fixtures

Pakistan in Bengaluru on November 4;
Sri Lanka in Bengaluru on November 9; 

How Pakistan can qualify

A week ago, Pakistan appeared to be down and out. Nevertheless, it appears that they are having some luck. Pakistan ended their four-match losing streak in Kolkata by defeating struggling Bangladesh, following a devastating one-wicket loss to South Africa in Chennai.

Pakistan’s net run rate currently puts them ahead of Afghanistan with six points from seven matches. Pakistan would prefer other outcomes to go their way, thus they do not control their own destiny. More significantly, Pakistan can only qualify for the semi-finals if they win their final two games.

Pakistan will also have to be wary of their net run rate, as they need it to be their friend if there is a tie on 10 or 8 points. To go past New Zealand’s NRR, Pakistan need to beat the Black Caps by 83 runs or chase down a target in around 35 overs in their meeting in Bengaluru on Saturday and then build on it in their final game.

PAK’s remaining fixtures

New Zealand in Bengaluru on November 4;
and England in Kolkata on November 11;

How can Afghanistan qualify?

Afghanistan appears to be well-positioned to make history by making it to their first World Cup semifinal. They have six points from six games and can get to twelve points to ultimately avoid a potential NRR struggle.

Afghanistan will like New Zealand to draw with Pakistan and then expect to get to the semi-finals by winning all of their remaining games. Australia’s chances could also be harmed by Afghanistan when the two sides play on November 7. Afghanistan, if they manage their net run rate, can also qualify with 10 points. 

AFG’s remaining fixtures: 

Netherlands in Lucknow on November 3;

Australia in Mumbai on November 7

and South Africa in Ahmedabad on November 7.

Can Sri Lanka, the Netherlands, and England qualify?

These three sides have also found renewed energy in the wake of New Zealand’s crushing loss in Pune. As of November 1, following the match in Pune, Bangladesh is the only team eliminated from the semi-final competition.

If Sri Lanka wins its next games, which include a match against New Zealand, they should have a solid chance of qualifying. Additionally, Sri Lanka ought to hope that Pakistan defeats New Zealand and that Afghanistan loses at least one of their remaining matches.

However, Sri Lanka’s net run rate raises several red flags, and they must win their remaining games by significant scores.

With six points from six games, the Netherlands may potentially enter the 10-point deadlock. Although it would be foolish to rule them out given their performances, they have some difficult obstacles in the future. The net run rate is a problem for the Dutch once more. 

England is ninth in the points table, but they have a slim chance of making it to the semifinals. In order to increase their net run rate, England must win their next three games by enormous margins, and they are hoping that either Australia doesn’t win any more games or New Zealand loses both of its remaining games.

England needs a lot of other outcomes to go their way if they are to advance with eight points. England will be eliminated if they lose any one of their next three games.

See also: The changes in One Day International Cricket over the years have impacted the ease of scoring runs.